BSU and Tulsa Set For Offensive Shootout in Mobile Alabama Bowl
Friday 02, January 2009
Andy Roberts
Key
Info: Tuesday, January 6, 8:00 pm ET at Ladd-Peebles
Stadium in Mobile, AL
Televised live on ESPN – Dave Pasch and Andre Ware announcing
It seems like eons ago, and not a mere month, that Ball State was coached by
Brady Hoke, was undefeated, and was ready to go to the MAC championship game.
Well, as you all know, Ball State lost that game to Buffalo. Brady Hoke left
for the warmer weather and the doubled paycheck at San Diego State. Offensive
wizard – but failed prior I-A head coach – Stan Parrish was promoted to replace
Hoke. (Jr. QB #13) Nate Davis’s brother, former Kent State and Arena Football
quarterback Jose, said there was a “95 percent” chance Nate would go pro after
this game.
So, 32 days after the debilitating MAC title game loss, the Cardinals play a 14th
game at the GMAC Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, celebrating its tenth anniversary.
Their opponent is a very strong team that won ten games themselves this year
and for a short time was on the list of possible BCS-busters: the Tulsa Golden
Hurricane.
Although the unbeaten dreams are now by the boards, a win in this game would
still be huge for Ball State. It would set a nearly unbreakable school record
with 13 wins. It would keep Ball State ranked in the final polls and keep the
Cards on the radar going into next year – which, even if Davis jumps to the
pros, could prove beneficial. Ball State’s returning talent is enough that
another very good season is quite possible next year, and Davis’s heir
apparent, (Fr. QB #5) Kelly Page, would have a year of tutelage under one of
the best ever MAC quarterbacks to learn from. And the 2009 non-league schedule
boasts a trip to Auburn – a high-profile but exceedingly winnable game.
But to make that win happen, Ball State has to do something they have not had
to try to do in two years – stop an offense that’s even better than their own.
Ball State offense vs. Tulsa defense
The Cardinals’ offense, so invincible and imperturbable, was not the same
against Buffalo. They turned the ball over five times – half their total for
the previous twelve games. They had no trouble at all moving the ball – 503
yards offensively, one of their best totals of the year. But after a season of
converting red-zone visits into six points, the Cardinals repeatedly handed the
ball to Buffalo – two of those turnovers turned immediately into touchdowns.
Nate Davis threw a pick and fumbled everything that moved. The only thing that
went according to plan was another 100-yard game for (Jr. RB #33) MiQuale
Lewis, having the best rushing season in Cards’ history.
However, Tulsa’s defense is nothing to be concerned about. The Golden Hurricane
surrender nearly 400 yards of offense and almost 30 points a game. Ball State
will move the ball easily against them. Especially through the air, where Tulsa
gives up 257 yards a game while Ball State averages 267. Tulsa will have to be
aware of (Sr. WR #81) Louis Johnson, the Cards’ main big-play wideout, and (Fr.
WR #16) Briggs Orsbon, who had his best game yet in the MAC title game, with 13
catches for 141 yards.
The Hurricane defense does, though, force a lot of fumbles – something that one
can assume is being beaten into the collective Ball State offense’s brain after
their last game. The Tulsa defense has forced 27 fumbles, recovering 14 of
them. At 22 turnovers overall, Tulsa’s defense isn’t quite ‘big-play’, but they
at least deserve a bit of wariness. Also of note, Tulsa has given up only about
10.5 second-half points a game. Ball State needs to jump on the Hurricane
defense, because they tend to get better as the game goes along. Jumping on the
opponent early has not been Ball State’s specialty this year, though.
There are two players in particular for the Cards to watch out for. First is
(Jr. LB #43) Mike Bryan. Bryan has a team-leading 112 tackles for Tulsa, 10.5
for loss. He has no pass defense stats, so he’s specifically a run-defense
linebacker, but he is formidable. MiQuale Lewis will have a chore getting past
him. The second defender to look for is (Jr. DB #6) James Lockett. Lockett is second
on his team in tackles, but more importantly, he’s easily the team leader in
sacks, at 8.5, and tackles for loss overall, at 15.5. He’ll play pass coverage
if he must, but he is a hitter and a tackler. If Lewis gets past Bryan at the
second level of Tulsa’s defense, he’ll probably get met by Lockett at level 3.
(Sr. DB #10) Roy Roberts has three of Tulsa’s eight interceptions, so if anyone
intercepts Nate Davis – doubtful – it’ll probably be him.
Tulsa offense vs. Ball State defense
Oh, boy. This is where things get interesting. And here’s why Tulsa does not
need a good defense:
310. 255. 565. 47.
That would be passing, rushing, total yards, and scoring average. Now THAT is
intimidating. That’s 106 more yards a game than Ball State’s offense averages.
And the scoring average ranks second. You know, only to the greatest offense in
college football history’s (Oklahoma’s). No big deal.
Tulsa’s attack is unique. They actually average holding onto the ball for LESS
time than their opponents, though they’ve run about ten more plays per game
than their opponents this year. They move quickly, slice up the defense and
score quicker. The magic number for Ball State’s defense will be 30. Tulsa’s
scored that or less in three games. Those three games were their three losses.
Ball State doesn’t have to stop Tulsa – in fact, they won’t be expected to.
They just need to keep them out of the endzone long enough for Ball State to
find its way there.
The individuals to look for, obviously, begins with the quarterback. (Sr. #5)
David Johnson has tossed for nearly 3,900 yards and has 48 touchdowns. What he
does also have, though, is 18 interceptions. Open season for (Fr. SS #25) Sean
Baker, Ball State’s best defensive player. Baker has a team-leading 91 tackles,
six interceptions, ten pass breakups, and will find his way to the football at
all costs. Expect a big play from him. Probably more like five.
Johnson has four targets he mainly
throws to, each having between 36 and 43 catches, making them the top four receivers on
the team. As you might expect from a spread, quick-strike attack (think Texas
Tech), all are possession receivers. Except for one. (Sr. WR #4) Brennan
Marion, Tulsa’s only 1,000-yard receiver, averages a whopping 26 yards a catch.
Ball State will have all sorts of problems stopping Tulsa’s attack as it is,
but Marion will present a unique challenge for a Cardinals’ secondary that hasn’t
had to have this many guys on the field all year long. I’ve mentioned it
before, but it bears repeating: Ball State can’t stop Tulsa. Their goal should
be to give up field goals. If they can, a turnover. But if they can manage to
keep Tulsa scoring three points a possession, they will have a chance to
overcome them with the offense.
Tulsa can run a little too. (Sr. RB #26) Tarrion Adams averages a solid six
yards a carry for over 1,300 yards this season. Adams running out of the spread
won’t be anything too foreign to the Cardinals. After all, they’ve played
against Central Michigan and Dan LeFevour’s own version of that attack. But
Tulsa’s lethal combination of being able to pass and run on a consistently
effective basis will be very difficult to deal with.
Find Out What the Fans are Thinking
Tulsa.Rivals.com is a good Tulsa fan site. The Golden Hurricane faithful at
Inside Tulsa Sports are reeling from their three-point loss in the C-USA title
game and are eager to bounce back against a ranked Ball State team.
For the Degenerate Gamblers:
And the line is…pick ‘em! Even the oddsmakers don’t know what to make of this
game. The over/under is 77, and even that seems like a good bet for the over. I
have no advice for you on who to take, though. This game looks like one that
will be one by whoever has the ball last, and that one’s a tough case to crack.
Prediction:
I look at this game, and I just don’t see it. It’s a horrible matchup for
Ball State. Tulsa’s a senior-laden, offensively unstoppable team. Ball State
has the capability to match them, but they’d have to play very well, and they
are coming off their worst game of the year. They have a new coach. There’s a
lot of uncertainty within the program right now. Nate Davis is readying his NFL
Draft resume. Ball State doesn’t have the same reason to get into this game as
Tulsa does. They already reached their height for the season, regardless of
this outcome. Tulsa can gain notoriety they haven’t yet achieved with a win in
this game.
I think Ball State will play pretty well. I just think Tulsa will play better.
The Golden Hurricane will outshoot the Cardinals, 45-35.
